Politics: Chances and structure of things in APC, PDP (Edo 2020)

Pursuant to the timetable declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the Commission is required to issue an election notice on 1 June 2020 in compliance with Section 30(1) of the Electoral Act, 2010 (as amended). This will pave the way for the 18 INEC-recognized political parties to obtain Signatures, EC9B (revised form CF002) from the Commission's headquarters.

It is not yet clear if INEC should have changed the deadlines due to the continuing containment efforts for the COVID-19 pandemic, but INEC has maintained that little has changed in the timetable published so far.

While his term at Osadebay Street Government House will expire on 11 November 2020, the evolving facts of the 19 September 2020 governorship election in the Edo State appear to favor the incumbent.

Concerns over the smooth start of the cycle aside, it is assumed that in the event that the incumbent goes on to win the governor's race, he will have proven to his exiled political godfather, predecessor and acting national chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC) that he has been the real Edo State Political GO (General Overseer).

However, the path to Godwin Obaseki's second electoral victory does not prove easy, largely because of the unnecessary internal schism between him and Comrade Oshiomhole, over the control of the APC apparatus, particularly as to who is calling the shots on who gets what in the state.

 

Recent checks have shown that, instead of disrupting or diminishing Obaseki's power, the political dominance struggle has exposed the governor to latent alliances and possibilities. Leaders in the other camp may have felt that as a 'neophyte,' the battle against the incumbent would end up in a frustrating experience for him.