Climate Change: UN weather agency predicts rise in global temperatures

The UN climate experts on Tuesday said that despite the cooling effect of the latest La Niña weather phenomenon, which has passed its peak, the globe is likely to see an increase in temperatures between now and April.

"But impacts on temperatures, precipitation and storm patterns continue"But impacts on temperatures, precipitation and storm patterns continue.

The Agency noted that in western, central, and eastern Asia and over the southern half of North America, above-normal temperatures are expected in the next three months and that there is a moderate probability (65 percent) that the La Niña event will continue into April.

La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, along with changes in winds, air pressure, and rainfall in the tropics.

It has been in place since August 2020, WMO said, "but this was not enough to prevent 2020 from being one of the three warmest years on record".

Above-normal temperatures are also likely over most northern high latitudes – except northwestern North America – southern, central, and eastern parts of South America, and equatorial and northern Africa. Below-normal temperatures are more likely for northern South America.

Turning to rainfall, WMO said that there were "increased chances of unusually wet conditions" that were consistent with La Niña's effects on regional climates, over much of South East Asia, Australia, and northern South America and islands in Melanesia.

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Southern Africa may also see above-normal rainfall, the agency continued, along with "an increased probability of above-normal precipitation (possibly as snow) over much of the Northern Hemisphere north of about 45 degrees North", although WMO credited the "ongoing negative Arctic Oscillation" climate driver for this trend, which has been observed since December, rather than La Niña. 

"East Asia, as well as parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Africa, subtropical latitudes of North America, islands in Polynesia and some parts of southeastern South America" says WMO's Global Seasonal Climate Update(GSCU).

According to WMO data, the short but significant rainy season in East Africa from October-December generally saw drier conditions in the north and east, with normal conditions in the south and west being wetter or nearer. Between now and April, similar mixed rainfall patterns are forecast.

Over-average rainfall has been seen in many parts of southern Africa, WMO noted, with a significant exception being parts of Mozambique and Madagascar, which have seen little or no rainfall.